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Monetary Policy and Price of Oil

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Author Info

  • Jan Hošek
  • Luboš Komárek
  • Martin Motl

Abstract

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and price of oil, in broader sense price of commodities. Firstly it focuses on describing the relationship of key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodities against oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of a "transmission channels" through which monetary policy can be propagated into oil prices (or prices of commodities). Secondly it provides further insight into the forecasting process of the CNB, in both a retrospective look back at the prospects of oil prices in the past and the analysis of transitory and permanent shock (the rise in oil prices of 30 USD/b). Simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. 77.50 USD/b.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Politická ekonomie.

Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 22-46

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2011:y:2011:i:1:id:770:p:22-46

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Related research

Keywords: real interest rate; oil price shock; oil price; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  4. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices : What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 738, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 109-124, 05.
  8. Wagner, Karin, 2008. "Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the United States – Any Solutions Available?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 124–134.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
  2. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.
  3. Filip Novotný, 2012. "The Link Between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(2), pages 220-232.

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