Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate
AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of changes in the U.S. dollar/euro exchange rate on crude oil prices. The negative correlation of these two variables is ascribed to five possible channels: on the supply side, the purchasing power of oil export revenues and on the demand side, local prices in non-U.S. dollar regions, investments in crude oil-related asset markets, the monetary policy regime in oil-exporting countries and the efficiency of the currency market. We give evidence that using information on the U.S. dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) significantly improves oil price forecasts. We discuss the possible implications these results might suggest with regard to the stabilization of oil prices or the adjustment of global imbalances. JEL classification: C53, F31, Q43
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Monetary Policy and the Economy.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (January 2009)
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011.
"The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Markets in Developed and Emerging Economies,"
Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series
1103, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
- Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2011. "The impact of oil price fluctuations on stock markets in developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 31753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thai-Ha Le & Youngho Chang, 2011. "The impact of oil price fluctuations on stock markets in developed and emerging economies," Working Papers 23, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
- Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013.
"Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Elbeck, Matt, 2010. "Advancing the design of a dynamic petro-dollar currency basket," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1938-1945, April.
- Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2011. "Dynamic relationships between the price of oil, gold and financial variables in Japan: a bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 33030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jan Hošek & Luboš Komárek & Martin Motl, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Price of Oil," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(1), pages 22-46.
- Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011. "Dynamics Between Strategic Commodities and Financial Variables," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 1104, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudia Kwapil).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.