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Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries and structural breaks

Author

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  • Sam Olofin

    (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan)

  • Afees A. Salisu

    (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan)

Abstract

In this paper, we model the relationship between oil price and inflation for selected OPEC and EU countries using monthly data from 2000 to 2014. We employ both the Linear (Symmetric) ARDL by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Nonlinear (Asymmetric) ARDL by Shin et al. (2014) and we also account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. Six findings are discernible from our analyses. First, the relationship between oil price and inflation tends to change over short periods. Secondly, the oil price-inflation nexus is stronger in oil exporting countries than oil importing countries. Thirdly, oil price asymmetries seem to matter more when dealing with oil exporting nations. Fourthly, it may be necessary to pre-test for structural breaks when modelling the relationship between oil price and inflation regardless of the category being analyzed. Fifth, while asymmetric effect for the oil exporting (OPEC) is not sensitive to structural breaks, the effect seems to diminish for oil-importing (EU) countries in the presence of breaks. Sixth, while the results are largely insensitive to the nature of data frequency, the behaviour of asymmetry suggests otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Olofin & Afees A. Salisu, 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries and structural breaks," Working Papers 020, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    • Handle: RePEc:cui:wpaper:0020
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    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
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    8. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Omoke Philip Chimobi & Uche Emmanuel, 2020. "Asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables: NARDL exposition," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 171-189.
    10. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Ebuh, Godday U., 2020. "A test for inflation persistence in Nigeria using fractional integration & fractional cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 225-237.
    11. Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Xiuwen & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Multi-scale interactions between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in time-frequency domains," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna, 2017. "Improving the Predictive ability of oil for inflation: An ADL-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 025, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    13. Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2020. "Disaggregated Inflation and Asymmetric Oil Price Pass-Through in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 255-264.
    14. Yang, Lu, 2019. "Connectedness of economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks in a time domain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-233.
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O. & Ohemeng, William, 2020. "The heterogeneous behaviour of the inflation hedging property of cocoa," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 22-32.
    18. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Jeng-Bau Lin & Wei Tsai, 2019. "The Relations of Oil Price Change with Fear Gauges in Global Political and Economic Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, August.
    20. Swaray, Raymond & Salisu, Afees A., 2018. "A firm-level analysis of the upstream-downstream dichotomy in the oil-stock nexus," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 199-218.
    21. Sukmana, Raditya & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "How Islamic are Islamic banks? A non-linear assessment of Islamic rate – conventional rate relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 443-448.
    22. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    23. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2021. "Crude Oil Price Changes and Inflation: Evidence for Asia and the Pacific Economies," MPRA Paper 110032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Ahmed S. Alimi & Oladotun D. Olaniran & Timothy Ayuba, 2020. "An Assymetric Evaluation of Oil Price- Inflation Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, June.
    25. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Inflation; Asymmetry; Structural breaks; Linear ARDL; Non-linear ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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