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STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE BRAZILIAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTS: A regime switching approach

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  • M. Portugal
  • I.A. de Morais

Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to apply a Markov Switching model to check the characteristics of the Brazilian demand for imports equation based on annual data from 1947 to 2002 and on quarterly data from 1978:I to 2002:II. The results show that this model satisfactorily describes the structural and conjunctural characteristics of Brazilian foreign trade in the last decades. The longterm analysis, based on annual data, allowed for the identification of cyclic periods of trade closure and openness that coincide with the historical events of Brazilian economy. The conjunctural analysis, based on quarterly data, indicates different elasticities for a regime with rise and fall in imports

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 346.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:346

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Keywords: Markov Switching; Error Correction Mechanism; Demand for Imports; Trade Elasticities; Co-integration.;

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