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STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE BRAZILIAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTS: A regime switching approach

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Author Info
M. Portugal
I.A. de Morais
Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to apply a Markov Switching model to check the characteristics of the Brazilian demand for imports equation based on annual data from 1947 to 2002 and on quarterly data from 1978:I to 2002:II. The results show that this model satisfactorily describes the structural and conjunctural characteristics of Brazilian foreign trade in the last decades. The longterm analysis, based on annual data, allowed for the identification of cyclic periods of trade closure and openness that coincide with the historical events of Brazilian economy. The conjunctural analysis, based on quarterly data, indicates different elasticities for a regime with rise and fall in imports

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 346.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:346

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Related research
Keywords: Markov Switching; Error Correction Mechanism; Demand for Imports; Trade Elasticities; Co-integration.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

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  1. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Warne, Anders, 2000. "Causality and Regime Inference in a Markov Switching VAR," Working Paper Series 118, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  6. André Filipe Zago de Azevedo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 1998. "Abertura comercial brasileira e instabilidade da demanda de importações," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 8(1), pages 37-63.
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  9. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C.R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2002. "Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models," Working Paper 2002-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  14. H. Krolzig, . "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-25, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  15. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Marcelle Chauvet, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), April. [Downloadable!]
  19. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
    Other versions:
  20. Afonso Henriques Borges Ferreira, 1994. "Testes de estabilidade para a função demanda de importações," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 48(3), April.
  21. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  23. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
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