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Macroeconomic Volatility during Argentina’s Import Substitution Stage

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Author Info
P. Ruben Mercado
Abstract

In this article, I analyze the characteristics and sources of macroeconomic volatility for the case of Argentina during the import substitution industrialization (ISI). This case is particularly relevant since Argentina has been one of the most extreme examples of macroeconomic volatility in the Latin American region. I estimated a small vector auto regression (VAR) to approximate the main dynamic features of the Argentine economy during the ISI: the balance of trade improving but the 'contractionary' effect of devaluation, and the short-run persistence of 'political-economic' switching regimes. Counterfactual experimentation showed the impossibility of reaching a complete economic stabilization during the historical period under analysis and the existence of sharp tradeoffs among the internal balance, the external balance and policy volatility. It also indicated that at least a half of the observed policy volatility could be attributed to exogenous shocks. These results suggest that the performance of the Argentine economy during the ISI could have been better under more rational policy management but, surprisingly, that the improvement would not be as large as one would expect.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 151-161
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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:15:y:2001:i:2:p:151-161

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  1. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Macroeconomic Populism in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 2986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  6. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  7. Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models," Economics Series Working Papers 99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "The macroeconomics of populism in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 316, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mercado, P Ruben & Kendrick, David A & Amman, Hans, 1998. "Teaching Macroeconomics with GAMS," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 125-49, October. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," RES Working Papers 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "The costs of intermediate targeting," Working Papers 254, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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