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Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

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  • Vo, Minh
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    Abstract

    This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 956-965

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:5:p:956-965

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Multivariate stochastic volatility Oil prices Stock market MCMC;

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    Cited by:
    1. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2012. "The analyses of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Petrochemicals Products: A Case Study of IRAN's Methanol," MPRA Paper 48788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2012. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price on the Methanol price," MPRA Paper 49727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C., 2014. "Volatility spillovers between the oil market and the European Union carbon emission market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-234.
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    5. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
    6. repec:wyi:wpaper:002210 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Komijani, Akbar & Naderi, Esmaeil & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2013. "A Hybrid Approach for Forecasting of Oil Prices Volatility," MPRA Paper 44654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2013. "Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?," MPRA Paper 46356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hatice Gaye GENCER & Erdem KILIC, 2014. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Links Among Gold, Oil and Istanbul Stock Exchange Sector Returns," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 170-182.

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