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Maximizing Predictability In The Stock And Bond Markets Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics LO, ANDREW W.
MACKINLAY, A. CRAIG
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We construct portfolios of stocks and bonds that are maximallypredictable with respect to a set of ex-ante observable economicvariables, and show that these levels of predictability arestatistically significant, even after controlling for data-snoopingbiases. We disaggregate the sources of predictability by usingseveral asset groups sector portfolios, market-capitalizationportfolios, and stock bond utility portfolios and find that thesources of maximal predictability shift considerably across assetclasses and sectors as the return horizon changes. Using threeout-of-sample measures of predictability forecast errors, Merton smarket-timing measure, and the profitability of asset-allocationstrategies based on maximizing predictability we show that thepredictability of the maximally predictable portfolio is genuine andeconomically significant.
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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics .
Volume (Year): 1 (1997)
Issue (Month): 01 (January)
Pages: 102-134
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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:01:p:102-134_00Contact details of provider: Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150 Email: Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDY
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Paper Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1992.
"Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets ,"
Working papers
3450-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
[Downloadable!] Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1995.
"Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets ,"
NBER Working Papers
5027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Leonid Kogan & Raman Uppal, .
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"Stock-Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty ,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
12-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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Valls Pereira, Pedro L. & Chicaroli, Rodrigo, 2009.
"Predictability of Equity Models ,"
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Penn CARESS Working Papers
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Frenk, J.B.G. & Schaible, S., 2004.
"Fractional Programming ,"
Research Paper
ERS-2004-074-LIS Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
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