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Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns

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  • Vaihekoski, Mika

Abstract

The predictability of Finnish stock returns is studied using the framework of Ferson and Harvey (1993). We use a conditional asset pricing model where risk premia and risk sensitivities are conditioned on a range of financial information variables. In particular, we study the effect of the return interval on the predictability of short-term stock returns. Using daily, weekly, and monthly Finnish size and industry-sorted portfolio returns, we find that the predictability of returns increases with the length of return interval, but so does the power of the conditional pricing model to explain the predictability. Consistent with earlier results, we report that the time variation in risk premium accounts for most of the predictability. However, the results show also there is a sizable positive interaction between beta and risk premium which seems to increase for smaller companies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13984.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Publication status: Published in Finnish Economic Papers 1.11(1998): pp. 19-36
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13984

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Keywords: asset pricing; predictability; return interval; time aggregation;

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References

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March.
  3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  4. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  7. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
  10. Virtanen, Ilkka & Yli-Olli, Paavo, 1987. "Forecasting stock market prices in a thin security market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-155.
  11. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
  12. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  13. Teppo Martikainen, 1991. "The impact of infrequent trading on betas based on daily, weekly and monthly return intervals : empirical evidence with Finnish data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 52-64, Spring.
  14. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
  15. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  16. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
  17. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
  18. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "Is the ex ante risk premium always positive? *1: A new approach to testing conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 387-408, December.
  21. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
  22. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  23. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  24. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
  25. Zhou, Guofu, 1994. "Analytical GMM Tests: Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 687-709.
  26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  27. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  28. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  29. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revision of 23-92) (Reprint 054)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  30. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Mika Vaihekoski, 2007. "Global Market and Currency Risk in Finnish Stock Market," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 72-88, Spring.
  2. Mika Vaihekoski, 2000. "Unconditional international asset pricing models: empirical tests," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 71-88, Autumn.

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