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Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios

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  • Patrick Criqui

    ()
    (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)

  • Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino

    (BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change - Basque Centre for Climate change)

  • Anil Markandaya

    (BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change - Basque Centre for Climate change)

  • Silvana Mima

    ()
    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

Abstract

Few papers have analysed the consequences of low climate stabilisation. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00872630.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 2014, 64, 288-301
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00872630

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00872630
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Related research

Keywords: Climate policy ; Economic growth ; Convergence ; Energy forecasting ; Abatement cost ; Partial Equilibrium models ; Energy systems;

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  1. D. Gale Johnson, 2000. "Population, Food, and Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 1-14, March.
  2. Terry Barker and S. Serban Scrieciu, 2010. "Modeling Low Climate Stabilization with E3MG: Towards a 'New Economics' Approach to Simulating Energy-Environment-Economy System Dynamics," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
  3. Russ, Peter & Criqui, Patrick, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction: The soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 786-796, February.
  4. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana & Viguier, Laurent, 1999. "Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 585-601, October.
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  12. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
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  14. Peter Russ & Patrick Criqui, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction : the soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Post-Print halshs-00078489, HAL.
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