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A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016

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  • Rausser, Gordon
  • Stuermer, Martin

Abstract

We advance a new framework for investigating the dynamic effects of collusion. In contrast to the standard reduced-form workhorse model, a structural vector auto-regressive model with sign restrictions allows us to endogenize cartel action and to distinguish unexpected market manipulations from other types of shocks. Utilizing a newly constructed monthly data set for the copper market from 1882 to 2016, we find that cartel action shocks have strong effects on price and output during collusive periods. More notably, these shocks have lessening, yet quite persistent impacts over the subsequent unwinding periods in which output damages dominate price damages.

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  • Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104708
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    Cited by:

    1. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers 2030, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    3. Leonardo Madio & Aldo Pignataro, 2022. "Collusion sustainability with a capacity constrained firm," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0295, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    4. Leonardo Madio & Aldo Pignataro, 2022. "Collusion Sustainability with a Capacity Constrained Firm," CESifo Working Paper Series 10170, CESifo.
    5. Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Non-renewable resource extraction over the long term: empirical evidence from global copper production," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 617-625, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collusion; market distortions; economic damages; structural time series; commodity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K2 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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