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Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth

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  • Gregor Schwerhoff
  • Martin Stuermer

Abstract

We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018. Why have resources not become scarcer as suggested by standard economic theory? We develop a theory of extraction technology, geology and growth grounded in stylized facts. Rising resource demand incentivises firms to invest in new technology to increase their economically extractable reserves. Prices remain constant because increasing returns from the geological distribution of resources offset diminishing returns in innovation. As a result, the aggregate growth rate depends partly on the geological distribution of resources. For example, a greater average concentration of a resource in the Earth's crust leads to more resource extraction, a lower price and a higher growth rate on the balanced growth path. Our paper provides economic and geologic microfoundations explaining why flat resource prices and increasing production are reasonable assumptions in economic models of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Schwerhoff & Martin Stuermer, 2015. "Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth," Working Papers 1506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1506
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1506r1
    Note: Revision of WP 1506, first published in December 2015.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 3-46, February.
    2. Peter Buchholz & Friedrich-W. Wellmer & Dennis Bastian & Maren Liedtke, 2020. "Leaning against the wind: low-price benchmarks for acting anticyclically in the metal markets," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 81-100, July.
    3. Jeannine Bailliu & Doga Bilgin & Kun Mo & Kurt Niquidet & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2019. "Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper," Discussion Papers 2019-3, Bank of Canada.
    4. John Baffes & Alain Kabundi & Peter Nagle, 2022. "The role of income and substitution in commodity demand [Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 498-522.
    5. Meier, Felix D. & Quaas, Martin F., 2021. "Booming gas – A theory of endogenous technological change in resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    6. Jacks, David S. & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Lukas Boer & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Energy Transition Metals," IMF Working Papers 2021/243, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-renewable resources; endogenous growth; extraction technology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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