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Dynamic nonparametric clustering of multivariate panel data

Author

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  • Joao, Igor Custodio
  • Lucas, André
  • Schaumburg, Julia
  • Schwaab, Bernd

Abstract

We introduce a new dynamic clustering method for multivariate panel data char-acterized by time-variation in cluster locations and shapes, cluster compositions, and, possibly, the number of clusters. To avoid overly frequent cluster switching (flickering), we extend standard cross-sectional clustering techniques with a penalty that shrinks observations towards the current center of their previous cluster as-signment. This links consecutive cross-sections in the panel together, substantially reduces flickering, and enhances the economic interpretability of the outcome. We choose the shrinkage parameter in a data-driven way and study its misclassification properties theoretically as well as in several challenging simulation settings. The method is illustrated using a multivariate panel of four accounting ratios for 28 large European insurance firms between 2010 and 2020. JEL Classification: C33, C38, G22

Suggested Citation

  • Joao, Igor Custodio & Lucas, André & Schaumburg, Julia & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Dynamic nonparametric clustering of multivariate panel data," Working Paper Series 2780, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232780
    Note: 955417
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2780~731951e908.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2015. "Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    2. André Lucas & Julia Schaumburg & Bernd Schwaab, 2019. "Bank Business Models at Zero Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 542-555, July.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    4. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Gertraud Malsiner-Walli, 2019. "From here to infinity: sparse finite versus Dirichlet process mixtures in model-based clustering," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 13(1), pages 33-64, March.
    5. Leopoldo Catania, 2021. "Dynamic Adaptive Mixture Models with an Application to Volatility and Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 531-564.
    6. Lin Chang-Ching & Ng Serena, 2012. "Estimation of Panel Data Models with Parameter Heterogeneity when Group Membership is Unknown," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, August.
    7. H. W. Kuhn, 1955. "The Hungarian method for the assignment problem," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1‐2), pages 83-97, March.
    8. Yongning Wang & Ruey S. Tsay, 2019. "Clustering Multiple Time Series with Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 182-202, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric A. Beutner & Yicong Lin & Andre Lucas, 2023. "Consistency, distributional convergence, and optimality of score-driven filters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-051/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cluster membership persistence; dynamic clustering; insurance industry; shrinkage; sil-houette index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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