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Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

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Abstract

We assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the Southern European crisis of the early 2010’s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one in Calvo (1988). Key for multiplicity is an output process featuring long periods of either high growth or stagnation that we estimate using data for those countries. We find that expectations-driven debt crises are quantitatively relevant but state dependent, as they only occur during stagnations. Expectations are a major driver explaining default rates and credit spread differences between Spain and Argentina.

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  • Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2023. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1370, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1370
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2023.1370
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    Cited by:

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    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Seung Hyun Maeng, 2023. "The Theory of Reserve Accumulation, Revisited," RSCAS Working Papers 2013_53, European University Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-fulfilling debt crises; Sovereign default; Multiplicity; Stagnations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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