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Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Aguiar
  • Manuel Amador
  • Hugo Hopenhayn
  • Iván Werning

Abstract

We study the interactions between sovereign debt default and maturity choice in a setting with limited commitment for repayment as well as future debt issuances. Our main finding is that, under a wide range of conditions, the sovereign should, as long as default is not preferable, remain passive in long‐term bond markets, making payments and retiring long‐term bonds as they mature but never actively issuing or buying back such bonds. The only active debt‐management margin is the short‐term bond market. We show that any attempt to manipulate the existing maturity profile of outstanding long‐term bonds generates losses, as bond prices move against the sovereign. Our results hold regardless of the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve captures the average costs of financing at different maturities but is misleading regarding the marginal costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Hugo Hopenhayn & Iván Werning, 2019. "Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 423-462, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:87:y:2019:i:2:p:423-462
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA14806
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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