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Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses

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Abstract

There has been a call for caution when using the conventional method for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices could be nonuniform for individual impulse responses or other quantity of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that, when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only sufficient but also necessary for inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution over the identified set for the vector of impulse responses. In addition, we show how to use the conventional method to conduct inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution for the vector of impulse responses. We generalize our results to vectors of objects of interest beyond impulse responses.

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  • Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2023. "Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:96956
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2023-13
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian; SVARs; uniform prior; sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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