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Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?

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Author Info
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

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Abstract

Currency fluctuations provide a substantial source of movements in relative prices that is largely exogenous to the firm. This paper evaluates empirically and theoretically the importance of exchange rate movements on job reallocation across and within sectors. The objective is (1) to provide accurate estimates of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and (2) to further our understanding of how reallocative shocks propagate through the economy. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates have a significant effect of gross and net job flows in the traded goods sector. Moreover, the paper finds that job creation and destruction comove positively, following a real exchange rate shock. Appreciations are associated with additional turbulence, and depreciations with a existing non-representative agent reallocation models have a hard time replicating the salient features of the data. The results indicate a strong tension between the positive comovements of gross flows in response to reallocative disturbances and the negative comovement in response to aggregate shocks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6864.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Publication status: published relationship to a non-chapter. This should not happen. Please contact NBER.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6864

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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  1. Carmen Pagés-Serra & Alejandro Micco, 2008. "Efectos económicos de la protección del empleo: Elementos de juicio a partir de datos internacionales a nivel de actividad económica," RES Working Papers 4497, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela, 2009. "Employment and exchange rates: the role of openness and technology," GEMF Working Papers 2009-08, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hoekman & Bernard & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Trade and employment : stylized facts and research findings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3676, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Charles Engel, 2002. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 9016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José M. Montero, 2006. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Banco de España Working Papers 0601, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Moser, Christoph & Urban, Dieter M & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2008. "International Competitiveness, Job Creation and Job Destruction - An Establishment Level Study of German Job Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 6745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2000. "Job Creation, Job Destruction, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 7466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Novella Bottini & Michael Gasiorek, 2009. "Trade and Job Reallocation: Evidence for Morocco," LIUC Papers in Economics 224, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
  10. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange rates and wages," Staff Reports 116, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Haltiwanger, John & Kugler, Adriana & Kugler, Maurice & Micco, Alejandro & Pagés, Carmen, 2004. "Effects of Tariffs and Real Exchange Rates on Job Reallocation:Evidence from Latin America," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0410, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro & Carlos H. Corseuil & Daniel Santos & Paulo Furtado & Brunu Amorim & Luciana Servo & André Souza, 2004. "Trade Liberalization, The Exchange Rate And Job And Worker Flows In Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 153, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Pozzolo, Alberto Franco & Nucci, Francesco, 2008. "Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08049, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Luis Carranza & Juan M. Cayo & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Performance in Peru: A Firm Level Analysis," Faculty Working Papers 12/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Carmen Pagés-Serra & Alejandro Micco, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Employment Protection: Evidence from International Industry-Level Data," RES Working Papers 4496, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Cedric Tille, 2002. "On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 146, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael & Weber, Andrea, 2003. "Sectoral Adjustment of Employment: The Impact of Outsourcing and Trade at the Micro Level," Economics Series 145, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Luis Carranza, . "Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange and Interest Rates Volatility: Case of Peru," DCBSLA Series 6, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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