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Disequilibrium in the Indian Registered Manufacturing Sector-A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Analysis

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  • HARISH MANI

    (Department of Economics Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Learning)

  • V. PANDIT

    (Department of Economics Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Learning)

  • R. PRABHAKAR RAO

    (Department of Economics Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Learning)

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    Abstract

    How a macroeconomic policy package is designed depends critically on whether the economy in question is supply constrained or demand constrained. In simple terms, this may often be seen in terms of whether the policies should try to augment demand or to raise productive capacity. The question is relevant to objectives of growth as well as stability. In the present study, we examine this problem with regard to the registered manufacturing sector in India, within a framework of market disequilibrium for the period 1980 through 2007. The maximum simulated likelihood approach used by us indicates that the registered manufacturing sector in India has largely been demand-constrained over the entire period of analysis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 222.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:222

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    Related research

    Keywords: Disequilibrium; Demand / Supply constrained; Regime-switching; Simulated-maximum likelihood.;

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    1. Fair, Ray C & Kelejian, Harry H, 1974. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 177-90, January.
    2. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November.
    3. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    5. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "Simulation estimation of dynamic switching regression and dynamic disequilibrium models -- some Monte Carlo results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 179-184, June.
    6. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1974. "Suppressed Inflation and the Supply Multiplier," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 87-104, January.
    7. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
    8. Goyal, A., 1991. "Demand Supply and Savings Constraints in the Indian Economy," Papers 65, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research-.
    9. Cosslett, Stephen R. & Lee, Lung-Fei, 1985. "Serial correlation in latent discrete variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 79-97, January.
    10. Pandit, V, 1977. "Multiplier, Velocity and Underdevelopment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 45(2), pages 112-26, June.
    11. Goldfelfd, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1975. "Estimation in a disequilibrium model and the value of information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 325-348, November.
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