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Looking Behind the U. K.Term Structure: Were there Peso Problems in Inflation?

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Martin Evans (Georgetown University)

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Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates that incorporates regime-switching into the dynamics ofthe state variables. The model generates time-varying risk premia via changes in the covariance structure of the state variables and Peso problems through regime- switching. When the model is estimated using real and nominal yields from the U. K., I find that Peso problems emanating from instability in inflation have a significant impact on the nominal term structure. Peso problems affect (i) the sample predictability of excess returns, (ii) nominal term premia,and (iii) the inflation risk premia linking real and nominal yields with expected inflation.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9809001.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9809001

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  1. Pearson, N.D. & Sun, T.S., 1991. "An Empirical Examination of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Papers fb-24, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Abon Mozumdar & Liuren Wu, 1998. "Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates," NBER Working Papers 6379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. William Roberds & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: explaining the predictability smile," Working Paper 96-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Structure," Working Papers 92-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  14. Martin D.D. Evans, 1995. "Peso Problems: Their Theoretical and Empirical Implications," Working Papers 95-05, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  15. Eli M. Remolona & Michael R. Wickens & Frank F. Gong, 1998. "What was the market's view of U.K. monetary policy? Estimating inflation risk and expected inflation with indexed bonds," Staff Reports 57, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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