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A Flexible Non Linear Model to Test the Expectation Hypothesis of Interest Rates

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  • Jean-michel Sahut

    () (Amiens School of Management and CEREGE EA 1722 University of Poitiers)

Abstract

Conventional approaches to examining the expectation hypothesis of interest rates assume a parametric linear specification among variables. In contrast, this paper tests the hypothesis using a flexible nonlinear inference approach proposed by Hamilton (2001). We examine the impact of the nonlinearity of interest rates to explain the variability of risk premia on market rates. It is assumed that the term structure of interest rates can be identified by two factors, the risk-free rate and its volatility. The results of the linearity test against nonlinear alternatives suggest that there is clear evidence of nonlinearity. Our empirical study shows that correctly accounting for the nonlinearity of the term structure of interest rates may explain the variability of risk premia and the specific characteristics of interest rate dynamics on the U.S. market.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P211.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 2297-2311

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00261

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Keywords: Term structure of interest rates; Non linearity; expectation hypothesis; flexible models.;

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  2. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Quadratic Term Structure Models: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 243-288, March.
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