This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Effect of Seasonal Adjustment on the Properties of Business Cycle Regimes

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Antonio Matas-Mir (European Central Bank)
Denise R. Osborn () (University of Manchester, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research, Economic Studies, School of Social Sciences)
Marco Lombardi (European central Bank)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X-11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A simulation analysis using Markov switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can have desirable properties in clarifying the true regime when this is well underway. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ds.unifi.it/ricerca/pubblicazioni/working_papers/2005/wp2005_15.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti" in its series Econometrics Working Papers Archive with number wp2005_15.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 37
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: forthcoming Journal of Applied Econometrics
Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2005_15

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Viale G.B. Morgagni, 59 - I-50134 Firenze - Italy
Phone: +39 055 4237211
Fax: +39 055 4223560
Web page: http://www.ds.unifi.it/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Margherita Velucchi).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "The effect of linear filters on dynamic time series with structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 69-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1999. "Does Seasonality Influence the Dating of Business Cycle Turning Points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 79-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap, 1996. "International Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    Other versions:
  9. Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Ghysels, Eric & Granger, Clive W J & Siklos, Pierre L, 1996. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 374-86, July.
    Other versions:
  13. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1984. "Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 350-59, October.
    Other versions:
  14. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Antonio Matas Mir & Denise R Osborn, 2004. "Seasonal adjustment and the detection of business cycle phases," Working Paper Series 357, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  20. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
  22. Rob Luginbuhl & Aart de Vos, 2003. "Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 365-386, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 2700 working paper series are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.