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Seasonal Adjustment and the Detection of Business Cycle Phases Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics A Matas-Mir
D R Osborn
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To date, there has been little investigation of the impact of seasonal adjustment on the detection of business cycle expansion and recession regimes. We study this question both analytically and through Monte Carlo simulations. Analytically, we view the occurrence of a single business cycle regime as a structural break that is later reversed, showing that the effect of the linear symmetric X-11 filter differs with the duration of the regime. Through the use of Markov switching models for regime identification, the simulation analysis shows that seasonal adjustment has desirable properties in clarifying the true regime when this is well underway, but it distorts regime inference around turning points, with this being especially marked after the end of recessions and when the one-sided X-11 filter is employed.
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number
26.
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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2003Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:26Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL Phone: (0)161 275 4868 Fax: (0)161 275 4812 Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/cgbcr/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: seasonal adjustment ; business cycles ; Markov switching models ; Other versions of this item:
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2004.
"Inflation persistence during periods of structural change - an assessment using Greek data ,"
Working Paper Series
370, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Thorsten V. Koeppl & Cyril Monnet, 2004.
"Guess what: it's the settlements! ,"
Working Paper Series
375, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Crowley , Patrick & Lee , Jim, 2005.
"Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area ,"
Research Discussion Papers
12/2005, Bank of Finland.
[Downloadable!]
Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco J. Lombardi, 2008.
"The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 257-278.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003.
"The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production ,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
38, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
[Downloadable!]
Tomas del Barrio Castro & Denise R. Osborn, 2006.
"A Random Walk through Seasonal Adjustment: Noninvertible Moving Averages and Unit Root Tests ,"
The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series
0612, Economics, The University of Manchester.
[Downloadable!]
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