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Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A Markov Switching Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Soh, Ann-Ni
  • Puah, Chin-Hong
  • Jong, Meng-Chang

Abstract

A wave of studies has always surrounded the nexus of tourism development and economic growth in a nation. An assessment is provided in this study to examine the Malaysian tourism market dynamics. A series of macroeconomic variables has been utilised to model tourism demand and examine causal linkages among tourism and economic growth. Spanning from 2000 till 2018 on a monthly basis, the Markov regime switching regression provides an overview of tourism market performance and potential influences during recession and expansion periods of the Malaysian tourism cycle. Notably, the results present a reference chronology of the crises happening over the past two decades, the Granger causality of the variables, and different behavioural changes of the variables as well for both recession and expansion periods. Significant relationships have been revealed in this study that suggest that overall international tourism can drive economic growth and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Soh, Ann-Ni & Puah, Chin-Hong & Jong, Meng-Chang, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A Markov Switching Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 115617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1573-1588, May.
    2. SOH Ann-Ni & PUAH Chin-Hong & ARIP M. Affendy, 2020. "Tourism Forecasting And Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 192-204, August.
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    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Forecasting Tourism Demand with Composite Indicator Approach for Fiji," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 12-22, December.
    6. Meng-Chang Jong & Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah, 2022. "Tourism Sustainability: Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in South Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 412-417, November.
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    12. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip & Tai-Hock Kuek, 2019. "Oil Price and Fijian Tourism Cycle: A Markov Regime-switching Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 188-192.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching regression; sustainable development goals; Granger causality; tourism-led growth hypothesis; R language;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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