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The Geography of the Great Recession

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  • Alessandra Fogli
  • Enoch Hill
  • Fabrizio Perri

Abstract

This paper documents, using county level data, some geographical features of the US business cycle over the past 30 years, with particular focus on the Great Recession. It shows that county level unemployment rates are spatially dispersed and spatially correlated, and documents how these characteristics evolve during recessions. It then shows that some of these features of county data can be generated by a model which includes simple channels of transmission of economic conditions from a county to its neighbors. The model suggests that these local channels are quantitatively important for the amplification/muting of aggregate shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18447.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Publication status: published as Alessandra Fogli & Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri, 2013. "The Geography of the Great Recession," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 305 - 331.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18447

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  1. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "On Spatial dynamics," Working Papers 2009-16, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  2. Eleonora Patacchini & Yves Zenou, 2007. "Spatial dependence in local unemployment rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 169-191, March.
  3. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, . "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Working Paper 17740, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  4. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Florian Mayneris, 2011. "Spatial concentration and plant-level productivity in france," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  5. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
  6. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1103-1138, 07.
  7. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
  8. Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Simon Burgess & Stefan Profit, 2001. "Externalities in the Matching of Workers and Firms in Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0490, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
  11. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," NBER Working Papers 15896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Greenstone, Michael & Hornbeck, Richard A. & Moretti, Enrico, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Scholarly Articles 11185831, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-31, August.
  14. Simon Burgess & Stefan Profit, 2001. "Externalities in the matching of workers and firms in Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20130, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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Cited by:
  1. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2014. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 20168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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