IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/15-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Foote
  • Michel Grosz
  • Ann Stevens

Abstract

Large shocks to local labor markets cause lasting changes to communities and their residents. We examine four main channels through which the local labor force adjusts following mass layoffs: in- and out-migration, retirement, and disability insurance enrollment. We show that these channels account for over half of the labor force reductions following a mass layoff event. By measuring the residual difference between these channels and labor force change, we also show that labor force non-participation grew in the period during and after the Great Recession. This result highlights the growing importance of non-participation as a response to labor demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz & Ann Stevens, 2015. "Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response," Working Papers 15-25, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:15-25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2015/CES-WP-15-25.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    2. Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August.
    3. Rappaport, Jordan, 2004. "Why are population flows so persistent?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 554-580, November.
    4. Elira Kuka, 2020. "Quantifying the Benefits of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Health," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 490-505, July.
    5. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    6. David Autor & Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & Alexander Strand, 2011. "Does Delay Cause Decay? The Effect of Administrative Decision Time on the Labor Force Participation and Earnings of Disability Applicants," Working Papers wp258, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Bartik, Timothy J., 1996. "The Distributional Effects of Local Labor Demand and Industrial Mix: Estimates Using Individual Panel Data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 150-178, September.
    8. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, August.
    9. Sara LaLumia, 2013. "The EITC, Tax Refunds, and Unemployment Spells," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 188-221, May.
    10. Richard V. Burkhauser & J. S. Butler & Gulcin Gumus, 2004. "Dynamic programming model estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance application timing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 671-685.
    11. Kreider, Brent, 1998. "Workers' Applications to Social Insurance Programs When Earnings and Eligibility Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 848-877, October.
    12. Daniel Sullivan & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis Using Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1265-1306.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    14. David Autor & Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & Alexander Strand, 2011. "Does Delay Cause Decay? The Effect of Administrative Decision Time on the Labor Force Participation and Earnings of Disability Applicants," Working Papers wp258, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    15. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Joyce Kwok, 2010. "Labor force participation and the future path of unemployment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep13.
    16. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Job Loss and Retirement Behavior of Older Men," NBER Working Papers 6920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Alessandra Fogli & Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri, 2013. "The Geography of the Great Recession," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 305-331.
    18. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1055-1081.
    19. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J Notowidigdo, 2019. "Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline and Labour Market Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 209-248.
    20. Lindo, Jason M., 2015. "Aggregation and the estimated effects of economic conditions on health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 83-96.
    21. Abigail Wozniak, 2010. "Are College Graduates More Responsive to Distant Labor Market Opportunities?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 944-970.
    22. Dan Black & Kermit Daniel & Seth Sanders, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Conditions on Participation in Disability Programs: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 27-50, March.
    23. Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State‐to‐State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360, May.
    24. Barry P. Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 2010. "Recessions, Wealth Destruction, and the Timing of Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2010-21, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2010.
    25. Peri, Giovanni & Sparber, Chad, 2011. "Assessing inherent model bias: An application to native displacement in response to immigration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 82-91, January.
    26. Coile Courtney C & Levine Phillip B, 2011. "The Market Crash and Mass Layoffs: How the Current Economic Crisis May Affect Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, April.
    27. Lundberg, Shelly, 1985. "The Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 11-37, January.
    28. B. Ravikumar & Lin Shao, 2014. "Discouraged workers: what do we know?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 6.
    29. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    2. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    3. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Gaetano Basso & Salvatore Lo Bello & Francesca Subioli, 2023. "Labor market dynamics and geographical reallocations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1430, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Grübl, Dominik & Lackner, Mario & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Intergenerational Transmission of Unemployment - Causal Evidence from Austria," IHS Working Paper Series 14, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    6. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    7. Vogel, Stephen & Miller, Cristina & Ralston, Katherine, 2021. "Impact of USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on Rural and Urban Economies in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," USDA Miscellaneous 314934, United States Department of Agriculture.
    8. Andrew Foote & Mark J. Kutzbach & Lars Vilhuber, 2021. "Recalculating ... : How Uncertainty in Local Labour Market Definitions Affects Empirical Findings," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(14), pages 1598-1612, March.
    9. Philipp vom Berge & Achim Schmillen, 2023. "Effects of mass layoffs on local employment—evidence from geo-referenced data," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 509-539.
    10. Scherpf, Erik & Weber, Bruce & Grobe, Deana & Edwards, Mark, 2018. "Participation in USDA’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): Effect of Local Labor Market Conditions in Oregon," Economic Research Report 277565, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Pawel Krolikowski & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2020. "Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss," Working Papers 20-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 02 Feb 2022.
    12. Karim Bekhtiar, 2023. "The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria," Economics working papers 2023-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Nathan Blascak & Anna Tranfaglia, 2021. "Decomposing Gender Differences in Bankcard Credit Limits," Working Papers 21-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Viviana Celli & Augusto Cerqua & Guido Pellegrini, 2023. "The long-term effects of mass layoffs: do local economies (ever) recover?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1121-1144.
    15. Bo Chen & Dong Tan, 2023. "Industrial Robots and the Employment Quality of Migrant Workers in the Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Veronica Minaya & Brendan Moore & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2020. "The Effect of Job Displacement on College Enrollment: Evidence from Ohio," NBER Working Papers 27694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Philipp vom Berge & Achim Schmillen, 2023. "Effects of mass layoffs on local employment—evidence from geo-referenced data," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 509-539.
    18. Vellore Arthi & Brian Beach & W. Walker Hanlon, 2017. "Estimating the Recession-Mortality Relationship when Migration Matters," NBER Working Papers 23507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Marta Bisztray, 2016. "The effect of foreign-owned large plant closures on nearby firms," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1623, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    20. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 593-622, Fall.
    21. Karim Bekhtiar, 2022. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Depopulation in Austria," Economics working papers 2022-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    22. Tyler Ransom, 2022. "Labor Market Frictions and Moving Costs of the Employed and Unemployed," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 137-166.
    23. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    2. Lindo, Jason M., 2013. "Aggregation and the Estimated Effects of Local Economic Conditions on Health," IZA Discussion Papers 7396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 593-622, Fall.
    4. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    6. Michael Amior, 2019. "Education and geographical mobility: the role of the job surplus," CEP Discussion Papers dp1616, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    8. John Gardner & Joshua R. Hendrickson, 2018. "If I Leave Here Tomorrow: An Option View of Migration When Labor Market Quality Declines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 786-814, January.
    9. Manuel Adelino & Song Ma & David Robinson, 2017. "Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 999-1038, June.
    10. McDuff, DeForest, 2011. "Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Park, Sujeong & Powell, David, 2021. "Is the rise in illicit opioids affecting labor supply and disability claiming rates?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Lindo, Jason M., 2015. "Aggregation and the estimated effects of economic conditions on health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 83-96.
    13. Amior, Michael, 2018. "The contribution of foreign migration to local labor market adjustment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91705, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Ying Tan & M. Rose Olfert, 2015. "U.S. Regional Poverty Post-2000," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 29(1), pages 38-48, February.
    15. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    16. Brian C. Cadena & Brian K. Kovak, 2016. "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 257-290, January.
    17. Eric D Gould, 2019. "Explaining the Unexplained: Residual Wage Inequality, Manufacturing Decline and Low-skilled Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1281-1326.
    18. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2014/211, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Davis, Elizabeth E. & Bosley, Stacie A., 2005. "THE IMPACT OF THE 1990s ECONOMIC BOOM ON LESS-EDUCATED WORKERS IN RURAL AMERICA," Working Papers 18918, Oregon State University, Rural Poverty Research Center (RPRC).
    20. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & David Powell, 2013. "The Effect of Local Labor Demand Conditions on the Labor Supply Outcomes of Older Americans," Discussion Papers 13-014, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:15-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dawn Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.