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Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe

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  • Mai Dao
  • Davide Furceri
  • Mr. Prakash Loungani

Abstract

We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past 40 years. Using state-level data, we estimate the dynamic response of regional employment, unemployment, participation rates and net migration to state-relative labor demand shocks. We find that (i) the long-run effect of a state-specific shock on the state employment level has decreased over time, suggesting less overall net migration in response to a regional shock, (ii) the role of the participation rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased, (iii) the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger, while that of relative unemployment is weaker during aggregate downturns, and (iv) the change in the response intensity of migration is related to the declining trend in regional dispersion of labor market conditions. Finally, using regional data for a set of 21 European countries, we show that while the short-term response of participation rates to labor demand shocks is typically larger in Europe than in the US, the immediate response of net migration in Europe has increased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe," IMF Working Papers 2014/026, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/026
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    13. Rémi Odry, 2020. "Academic Convergence and Migration: the effect of the BolognaProcess on European Mobility," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2017. "Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 631-653, April.
    15. Yagan, Danny, 2016. "The Enduring Employment Impact of Your Great Recession Location," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt12d0w9bs, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    16. Pietro Pizzuto, 2020. "The role of regional competitiveness in shaping the heterogeneous impact of the Great Recession," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 267-290, April.
    17. Bakas, Dimitrios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2016. "On the significance of labour reallocation for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 229-240.
    18. Laws, A., 2020. "Localised employment spillovers," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2067, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    20. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2022. "Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    21. Benjamin Hilgenstock & Zsoka Koczan, 2018. "Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas," IMF Working Papers 2018/118, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    23. Clemens, Marius, 2016. "Migration, Unemployment and the Business Cycle - A Euro Area Perspective," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145578, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Luis E. Arango & Francesca Castellani & Nataly Obando, 2016. "It is mainly about where you work! Labor demand in the Colombian manufacturing sector," Borradores de Economia 933, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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