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Dwindling U.S. Internal Migration: Evidence of Spatial Equilibrium?

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  • Mark D., Partridge
  • Dan S., Rickman
  • M. Rose, Olfert
  • Kamar, Ali

Abstract

This paper examines whether the significant downward shift in U.S. gross migration rates after 2000 is indicative of the economy nearing a stationary spatial equilibrium. Nearness to spatial equilibrium would imply that site-specific factors such as amenities and location within the urban hierarchy have little influence on migration because their values have been capitalized into prices, causing interregional utility levels to become approximately equal. Yet, in an examination of U.S. counties, we find empirical evidence of only a mild ebbing of natural amenity-based migration after 2000 and little slowing of population redistribution from peripheral towards core urban areas. Instead, the primary finding is a downward shift in the responsiveness of population to spatially asymmetric demand shocks post-2000, and associated increased responsiveness of local area labor supply, more consistent with European regional labor markets. Quantile regression analysis suggests that this shift does not relate to a difference in regional labor market tightness across the two decades.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28157.

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Date of creation: 27 Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28157

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Keywords: spatial equilibrium; migration; regional growth;

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References

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  1. David E. Clark & William E. Herrin & Thomas A. Knapp & Nancy E. White, 2003. "Migration and implicit amenity markets: does incomplete compensation matter?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 289-307, July.
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  7. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali, 2008. "Recent Immigration and Economic Outcomes in Rural America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1326-1333.
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  20. Mincer, Jacob, 1978. "Family Migration Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 749-73, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2012. "Migration, housing market, and labor market responses to employment shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 267-284.
  2. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do local amenities affect the appeal of regions in Europe for migrants?," Working Papers 2012-04, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  3. Rickman, Dan S. & Guettabi, Mouhcine, 2013. "The Great Recession and Nonmetropolitan America," MPRA Paper 44829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias Ketterer, 2011. "Do we follow the money? The drivers of migration across regions in the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa11p191, European Regional Science Association.

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