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Oil price volatility in the context of Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • David Bourghelle
  • Fredj Jawadi
  • Philippe Rozin

Abstract

The recent coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has negatively impacted the whole economy, especially the oil industry, in at least two ways. First, it created a demand shock as COVID-19 reduced global demand for crude oil, increased uncertainty, and triggered a serious economic recession in most developed and emerging countries. Second, it led to a supply shock as the pandemic resulted in an oil trade war between the major oil-producing nations (Saudi Arabia and Russia). Both shocks led to very high levels of oil price volatility. Our paper explores the dynamics of this volatility and explains the effects of these two shocks (induced by an adjustment of oil demand and supply) on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price volatility. Accordingly, we show that oil price volatility reacted substantially to the pandemic-induced oil shocks. In particular, we document the impact of uncertainty caused by these shocks and investor anxiety on oil price volatility. We show that greater uncertainty leads to more oil price volatility. Our findings remained unchanged even after controlling for modeling robustness.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bourghelle & Fredj Jawadi & Philippe Rozin, 2021. "Oil price volatility in the context of Covid-19," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 39-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2021-q3-167-13
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    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701721000226
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Oil tail risks and the realized variance of consumer prices in advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Cai, Lu & Le, Thanh Tiep, 2023. "Natural resources and financial development: Role of corporate social responsibility on green economic growth in Vietnam," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Shi, Tao & Li, Chongyang & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Yi, 2023. "Forecasting on metal resource spot settlement price: New evidence from the machine learning model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Anupam Dutta & Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh & Donghyun Park & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "Impact of crude oil volatility jumps on sustainable investments: Evidence from India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1450-1468, October.
    5. Lyu, Zhichong & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Jixiang, 2023. "Oil futures volatility prediction: Bagging or combination?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 457-467.
    6. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2022. "Modeling the impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak on environment, health sector and energy market," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1387-1416, October.
    7. Juraj Šebo & Jasna Prester & Miriam Šebová, 2023. "The Role of Environmental Management Systems and Energy Management Systems in the Adoption of Energy Recuperation Technologies in Central European Manufacturing Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Xiufeng Xing & Yingjia Cong & Yu Wang & Xueqing Wang, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 and War in Ukraine on Energy Prices of Oil and Natural Gas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Fiszeder, Piotr & Fałdziński, Marcin & Molnár, Peter, 2023. "Attention to oil prices and its impact on the oil, gold and stock markets and their covariance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Huang, Yisu & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi & Zhao, Chenchen, 2023. "Chinese crude oil futures volatility and sustainability: An uncertainty indices perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Liang, Xuedong & Luo, Peng & Li, Xiaoyan & Wang, Xia & Shu, Lingli, 2023. "Crude oil price prediction using deep reinforcement learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Xu, Lan & Wu, Yang, 2023. "Nexus between green finance, renewable energy and carbon emission: Empirical evidence from selected Asian economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Oil price volatility; Uncertainty; VAR modelling; Impulse-response functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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