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Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP

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  • Camacho, Maximo

Abstract

I find that real US GDP is better characterized as a trend stationary Markov-switching process than as having a (regime-dependent) unit root. I examine the effects of both assumptions on the analysis of business cycle features and their implications for the persistence of the dynamic response of output to a random disturbance.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511001121
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 112 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 161-164

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:112:y:2011:i:2:p:161-164

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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Keywords: Business cycles Output growth Time series;

References

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  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:11:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2005. "Jump-and-rest effect of U.S. business cycles," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0507, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  5. Raybaudi, Marzia & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "Red signals: current account deficits and sustainability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 217-223, August.
  6. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-54, March-Apr.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December.
  8. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kanas, Angelos & Genius, Margarita, 2005. "Regime (non)stationarity in the US/UK real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 407-413, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrés Felipe Giraldo & Martha Misas Arango & Edgar Villa Pérez, 2011. "Reconstructing the recent monetary policy history of Colombia from 1990 to 2010," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008860, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  2. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
  3. Emrah Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2013. "Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 675-695, October.

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