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Yield curve impacts of forward guidance and maturity extension programs

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  • Jeff W. Huther
  • Jason S. Seligman
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    Abstract

    In 2011 and 2012, the Federal Reserve sold Treasury securities from the short end of the yield curve at the same time it was providing market participants with date-specific assurances that overnight interest rates would not rise. We investigate how these two policies, which had conflicting pricing pressures, were absorbed by the market. We analyze the impacts of sales on the volume and composition of inventories of the Federal Reserve's counterparties, and examine how announcements of accommodative monetary policy affected spreads and prices across maturities. Our results suggest that these two reserve-neutral policies affected interest rates both within and beyond the stated policy periods. The finding that Federal Reserve's sales, conducted during periods of date-based forward guidance, were associated with higher interest rates suggests that the policy effects were not limited to the anticipated path of federal funds rates. We also find that the accumulation of Treasury securities by Federal Reserve counterparties was consistent with the idea that those dealers responded opportunistically to the forward guidance on rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2013-72.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-72

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    1. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Refet S. G├╝rkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Warren B. Hrung & Jason S. Seligman, 2011. "Responses to the financial crisis, treasury debt, and the impact on short-term money markets," Staff Reports 481, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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