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Inflationary Implication of Gold Price in Vietnam

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  • Thi Kim Cuc Nguyen
  • Reza Yamora Siregar

Abstract

The sustained elevated gold price domestically, hovering persistently above the global market price, underscores the peculiar nature of the gold market in Vietnam and the resiliently strong demand for gold in the local market. In particular, the movements in the price of gold seem to lead a symmetrical trend in the headline inflation since the outbreak of the 2007 global financial crisis. The primary objective of this study is therefore to assess possible inflationary consequence of the gold price movements in Vietnam. Past studies demonstrate that if gold could be viewed as a financial asset, shifts in the gold price should be monitored as one of the determining factors of inflation. Yet, hardly any study has assessed potential inflationary implication of gold in Vietnam, especially during the recent years of volatile and double-digit inflation rates.

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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2013-20.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-20

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Keywords: Gold Price; Vietnam; Money Demand; and Inflation;

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  1. Tkacz, Greg, 2004. "Inflation changes, yield spreads, and threshold effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-199.
  2. Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1997. "Gold and commodity prices as leading indicators of inflation: Tests of long-run relationship and predictive performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 475-489.
  3. Siregar, Reza & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2005. "Sources of variations between the inflation rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the post-1997 crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 867-884, October.
  4. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  5. Goujon, Michael, 2006. "Fighting inflation in a dollarized economy: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 564-581, September.
  6. Quan Hoang Vuong, 2004. "Analyses on Gold and US Dollar in Vietnam's Transitional Economy," Working Papers CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles 04-033.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Gold Prices and Inflation," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 07-35, Bank of Canada.
  8. Tobias F. Rötheli, 1990. "Money Supply and Money Demand Determinants of Swiss Inflation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 126(I), pages 1-15, March.
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
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