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Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?

Author

Listed:
  • Yingying Xu

    (University of Science and Technology Beijing)

  • Chi-Wei Su

    (Qingdao University)

  • Jaime Ortiz

    (University of Houston)

Abstract

We examine whether gold is an effective hedge against inflation over different time horizons. Using a stationary test with a flexible Fourier function, we consider all possible structural breaks with unknown forms and find that real gold returns over horizons ranging from 1 month to 15 years are nonlinear stationary processes. Although the real gold return may deviate from the inflation hedge rate because of holding opportunity cost and insufficient demand, over time it reverts to the long-run hedge rate. The results indicate that gold has generally maintained its purchasing power for the past 39 years. Therefore, gold can be a reliable hedge against inflation in both short and long time horizons. It is reasonable for investors to hold a certain amount of gold to hedge against the risk of inflation or to diversify assets, regardless of holding period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yingying Xu & Chi-Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2021. "Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1175-1189, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01807-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01807-0
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    2. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Olubiyi, Ebenezer A. & Adedeji, Adedayo O., 2023. "The inflation-hedging performance of industrial metals in the world's most industrialized countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. OJAGHLOU , Mortaza & SATVATİ, Rozita, 2021. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Turkey," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 79-89, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold; Inflation; Hedge; Stationary test; Structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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