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Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?

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  • Pástor, Luboš
  • Stambaugh, Robert F.

Abstract

Conventional wisdom views stocks as less volatile over long horizons than over short horizons due to mean reversion induced by return predictability. In contrast, we find stocks are substantially more volatile over long horizons from an investor's perspective. This perspective recognizes that parameters are uncertain, even with two centuries of data, and that observable predictors imperfectly deliver the conditional expected return. We decompose return variance into five components, which include mean reversion and various uncertainties faced by the investor. Although mean reversion makes a strong negative contribution to long-horizon variance, it is more than offset by the other components. Using a predictive system, we estimate annualized 30-year variance to be nearly 1.5 times the 1-year variance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7199.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7199

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Keywords: long-run; risk; stock; variance;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Li, Minqiang, 2010. "Asset Pricing - A Brief Review," MPRA Paper 22379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
  3. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann & Rossen Valkanov, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints," Working Papers 57, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  4. Jessica Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 16255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  6. Bec, Frédérique & Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Cyclicality and Term Structure of Value-at-Risk in Europe," IDEI Working Papers 587, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  7. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction," NBER Working Papers 18870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mark W. Watson, 2013. "Comment on "Shocks and Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 367-378 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Richard W. Kopcke & Dan Muldoon, 2009. "Why Are Stocks So Risky?," Issues in Brief ib2009-9-23, Center for Retirement Research, revised Nov 2009.
  10. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2008. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-179, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  11. Daniele Pennesi, 2013. "Asset Prices in an Ambiguous Economy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 315, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  12. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
  13. Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.

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