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Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?

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Author Info
Lubos Pastor
Robert F. Stambaugh

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Abstract

Conventional wisdom views stocks as less volatile over long horizons than over short horizons due to mean reversion induced by return predictability. In contrast, we find stocks are substantially more volatile over long horizons from an investor's perspective. This perspective recognizes that parameters are uncertain, even with two centuries of data, and that observable predictors imperfectly deliver the conditional expected return. We decompose return variance into five components, which include mean reversion and various uncertainties faced by the investor. Although mean reversion makes a strong negative contribution to long-horizon variance, it is more than offset by the other components. Using a predictive system, we estimate annualized 30-year variance to be nearly 1.5 times the 1-year variance.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14757.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14757

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Pension Funds; Other Private Financial Institutions

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    Other versions:
  3. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  16. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2008. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 13804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Temporary Components of Stock Returns: What Do the Data Tell Us?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1033-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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