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Analyses on Gold and US Dollar in Vietnam's Transitional Economy

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  • Quan Hoang Vuong

Abstract

This paper looks into economic insights offerred by considerations of two important financial markets in Vietnam, gold and USD. In general, the paper focuses on time series properties, mainly returns at different frequencies, and test the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. All the test rejects the efficiency of both gold and foreign exchange markets. All time series exhibit strong serial correlations. ARMA-GARCH specifications appear to have performed well with different time series. In all cases the changing volatility phenomenon is strongly supported through empirical data. An additional test is performed on the daily USD return to try to capture the impacts of Asian financial crisis and daily price limits applicable. No substantial impacts of the Asian crisis and the central bank-devised limits are found to influence the risk level of daily USD return.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers CEB with number 04-033.RS.

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Length: 52 p.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:04-033

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Keywords: Vietnam; Financial economy; U.S. Dollar; Gold;

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References

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  1. De Jong, Frank & Mahieu, Ronald & Schotman, Peter, 1998. "Price discovery in the foreign exchange market: an empirical analysis of the yen/dmark rate1, 2," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-27, February.
  2. Chang, Kook-Hyun & Kim, Myung-Jig, 2001. "Jumps and time-varying correlations in daily foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 611-637, October.
  3. Malik, Farooq, 2003. "Sudden changes in variance and volatility persistence in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 217-230, July.
  4. Oberlechner, Thomas & Hocking, Sam, 2004. "Information sources, news, and rumors in financial markets: Insights into the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 407-424, June.
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  6. Solt, Michael E & Swanson, Paul J, 1981. "On the Efficiency of the Markets for Gold and Silver," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 453-78, July.
  7. BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien & LECOURT, Christelle, . "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1705, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Michel Beine, 2003. "Volatility expectations and asymmetric effects of direct interventions in the FX market," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10439, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  10. BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1706, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. William A. Carter, 1963. "World Gold Production And The Money Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 494-510, 09.
  12. Edmonds, Radcliffe Jr. & So, Jacky Y. C., 2004. "Is exchange rate volatility excessive? An ARCH and AR approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 122-154, February.
  13. Paolo Zaffaroni, 2003. "Gaussian inference on certain long-range dependent volatility models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 472, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2001. "Long memory and nonlinear mean reversion in Japanese yen-based real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 115-132, February.
  15. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
  16. Zaffaroni, Paolo & d'Italia, Banca, 2003. "Gaussian inference on certain long-range dependent volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 199-258, August.
  17. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
  18. Jeon, Bang Nam & Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "The impact of the Asian financial crisis on foreign exchange market efficiency: The case of East Asian countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 509-525, September.
  19. Quan Hoang Vuong, 2000. "The Vietnamese Corporate Bond Market An Early Exploration into the 1992-1999 Period," Working Papers CEB 00-001.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  20. Lee, Chun I. & Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 2001. "On market efficiency of Asian foreign exchange rates: evidence from a joint variance ratio test and technical trading rules," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-214, June.
  21. Quan Hoang Vuong, 2004. "The Vietnam's Transition Economy and Its Fledgling Financial Markets: 1986-2003," Working Papers CEB 04-032.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Quan Hoang Vuong & Tran Tri Dung & Thi Chau Ha NguyenN, 2009. "Mergers and Acquisitions in Vietnam’s Emerging Market Economy, 1990-2009," Working Papers CEB 09-045.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Siregar, Reza Yamora & Nguyen, Thi Kim Cuc, 2013. "Inflationary Implication of Gold Price in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 46157, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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