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Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data

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  • Azad, A.S.M. Sohel

Abstract

This paper empirically tests the random walk and efficiency hypothesis for 12 Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets. The hypothesis is tested using individual as well as panel unit root tests and two variance-ratio tests. The study covers the high (daily) and medium (weekly) frequency post-Asian crisis spot exchange rate data from January 1998 to July 2007. The inferential outcomes do not differ substantially between the unit root tests and the variance-ratio tests when using daily data but differ significantly when using weekly data. With the daily data, both types of unit root tests identify unit root components for all the series and two variance-ratio tests provide the evidence of martingale behavior for majority of the exchange rates tested. With the weekly data, panel unit root tests identify unit root component for the exchange rates and, the unit root tests on a single series basis identify unit root component for 10 foreign exchange markets. However, the variance-ratio tests reject the martingale null for the majority of the exchange rates when using weekly data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.

Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 322-338

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Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:23:y:2009:i:3:p:322-338

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Related research

Keywords: Asia-Pacific foreign exchange market Random walk and efficiency Unit root tests Variance-ratio tests Simulation;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Azmat, Saad & Fang, Victor & Edirisuriya, Piyadasa, 2014. "Unchecked manipulations, price–volume relationship and market efficiency: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 51-71.
  2. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Su, Hsin-Mei & Tzou, Yi-Pin, 2010. "Efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets for four Asian Countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 284-294, September.
  3. Chun-Teck Lye & Tze-Haw Chan & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2011. "Nonlinear prediction of Malaysian exchange rate with monetary fundamentals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 1960-1967.
  4. Chun-Teck Lye & Tze-Haw Chan & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2012. "Nonlinear Analysis Of Chinese And Malaysian Exchange Rates Predictability With Monetary Fundamentals," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 5(1), pages 38-49, July.
  5. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
  6. Hsien-Yi Lee & Khatanbaatar Sodoikhuu, 2012. "Efficiency Tests in Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 216-224.
  7. Mobarek, Asma & Fiorante, Angelo, 2014. "The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 217-232.

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