Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kim, Jae H.
  • Shamsuddin, Abul

Abstract

This paper tests for the martingale hypothesis in the stock prices of a group of Asian markets. We use new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs. These are non-parametric finite sample tests, which do not rely on large sample theories for statistical inference. This paper also presents Monte Carlo results that these non-parametric tests show superior small sample properties to those of the conventional Chow-Denning test. Both weekly and daily data from 1990 are considered, while moving sub-sample windows are used for the latter to control the sensitivity of the results to a particular sample period. It is found that the Hong Kong, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese markets have been efficient in the weak-form. The markets of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines have shown no sign of market efficiency, despite financial liberalization measures implemented since the eighties. We have also found evidence that the Singaporean and Thai markets have become efficient after the Asian crisis. In general, the results point toward the notion that the pricing efficiency of a market depends on the level of equity market development as well as the regulatory framework conducive of transparent corporate governance.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFG-4P6M60D-1/1/d8aec1ff4373f710fa8985a649d2a88f
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 518-532

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:518-532

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fong, Wai Mun & Koh, Seng Kee & Ouliaris, Sam, 1997. "Joint Variance-Ratio Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 51-59, January.
  2. Kuo-Ping Chang & Kuo-Shiuan Ting, 2000. "A variance ratio test of the random walk hypothesis for Taiwan's stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 525-532.
  3. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
  5. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  7. Whang, Yoon-Jae & Kim, Jinho, 2003. "A multiple variance ratio test using subsampling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 225-230, May.
  8. Eduardo Jose Araujo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2004. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for equity markets: evidence from China, Hong Kong and Singapore," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 255-258.
  9. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2003. "Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 383-95, July.
  10. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
  11. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1988. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
  13. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  14. Kawakatsu, Hiroyuki & Morey, Matthew R, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of Financial Liberalization and the Efficiency of Emerging Market Stock Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 385-411, Winter.
  15. Ayadi, O. Felix & Pyun, C. S., 1994. "An application of variance ratio test to the Korean securities market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, September.
  16. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Burton Malkiel & Sendhil Mullainathan & Bruce Stangle, 2005. "Market Efficiency versus Behavioral Finance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 17(3), pages 124-136.
  18. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
  19. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
  20. Black, Fischer, 1986. " Noise," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 529-43, July.
  21. Lehmann, Bruce N, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28, February.
  22. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  23. Hyun-Jung Ryoo & Graham Smith, 2002. "Korean stock prices under price limits: variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 545-553.
  24. Savin, N.E., 1984. "Multiple hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 827-879 Elsevier.
  25. Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
  26. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
  27. Lee, Cheng F & Chen, Gong-meng & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "Stock Returns and Volatility on China's Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 523-43, Winter.
  28. Marian Berneburg, 2004. "Are European Equity Style Indexes Mean Reverting? Testing the Validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," IWH Discussion Papers 193, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  29. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
  30. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Kwaku Opong, 2005. "A Variance Ratio Test of the Behaviour of Some FTSE Equity Indices Using Ranks and Signs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 93-107, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:518-532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.