Nonparametric testing of the high-frequency efficiency of the 1997 Asian foreign exchange markets
AbstractFor the first time, non-parametric statistical tests, originally developed by Sherry (1992) to test the efficiency of information processing in nervous systems, are used to ascertain if the Asian FX rates followed random walks. The stationarity and serial independence of the price changes are tested on minute-by-minute data for nine currencies for the period from January 1, 1997 to December 30, 1997. Tested were the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Philippines' peso, Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and the Hong Kong dollar, with the Japanese Yen and German Deutschmark as benchmarks (The U.S. Dollar is the base currency). The efficiency of these FX markets before and after the onset of the Asian currency turmoil (i.e., January 1 - June 30, 1997 and July 1 - December 30, 1997) are compared. The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah and Singapore dollar exhibited non-stationary behavior during the entire year, and gave evidence of a trading regime break, while the Phillipines' peso, Taiwan dollar, Yen and Deutschmark remained stationary (The Hong Kong dollar was pegged). However, each half-year regime showed stationarity by itself, indicating stable and nonchaotic trading regimes for all currencies, despite the high volatilities, except the Malaysian ringgit, which exhibited non-stationarity in the second half of 1997. The Thai baht traded nonstationarily in the first half of 1997, but stationarily in the second half, while the Taiwan dollar reversed that trading pattern. Regarding Sherry's four serial independence tests of differential spectrum, relative price changes, temporal trading windows of at least 20 minutes long and price change category transitions: none of the currencies exhibited complete independence. Thus no Asian currency market - including the Yen - exhibited complete efficiency in 1997 regarding both stationarity and independence, in particular when compared with the highly efficient Deutschmark. But, remarkably, the Phillipp
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multinational Financial Management.
Volume (Year): 9 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin
Other versions of this item:
- Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Nonparametric Testing of the High-Frequency Efficiency of the 1997 Asian Foreign Exchange Markets," Finance 0409040, EconWPA.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
2795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Myung Jig & Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 515-28, May.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991.
"Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May.
- Mankiw, N.G. & Romer, D. & Shapiro, M.D., 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability And Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Papers 89-21, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," NBER Working Papers 3154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
- Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
- Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997.
"Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Testing for covariance stationarity in stock market data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-170, June.
- Mark D. Flood, 1991. "Microstructure theory and the foreign exchange market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 52-70.
- Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1997. "The analysis of foreign exchange data using waveform dictionaries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 341-372, December.
- Goodhart, Charles & Chang, Yuanchen & Payne, Richard, 1997. "Calibrating an algorithm for estimating transactions from FXFX exchange rate quotes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 921-930, December.
- repec:att:wimass:9208 is not listed on IDEAS
- Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994.
"Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Kyaw, NyoNyo A. & Los, Cornelis A. & Zong, Sijing, 2006.
"Persistence characteristics of Latin American financial markets,"
Journal of Multinational Financial Management,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 269-290, July.
- Sijing Zong & Cornelis A. Los & Nyonyo Kyaw, 2004. "Persistence Characteristics of Latin American Financial Markets," Finance 0411013, EconWPA.
- Nyo Nyo A. Kyaw & Cornelis A. Los & Sijing Zong, 2004. "Persistence Characteristics of Latin American Financial Markets," Finance 0409048, EconWPA.
- Cornelis A. Los & Jeyanthi Karuppiah, 2004.
"Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency Asian FX Rates, Summer 1997,"
- Karuppiah, Jeyanthi & Los, Cornelis A., 2005. "Wavelet multiresolution analysis of high-frequency Asian FX rates, Summer 1997," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 211-246.
- Jeyanthi Karuppiah & Cornelis A. Los, 2000. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency FX Rates, Summer 1997," School of Economics Working Papers 2000-06, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.