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Nonparametric Efficiency Testing of Asian Stock Markets Using Weekly Data

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  • CORNELIS A. LOS

    (Kent State University)

Abstract

The efficiency of speculative markets, as represented by Fama's 1970 fair game model, is tested on weekly price index data of six Asian stock markets - Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - using Sherry's (1992) non-parametric methods. These scientific testing methods were originally developed to analyze the information processing efficiency of nervous systems. In particular, the stationarity and independence of the price innovations are tested over ten years, from June 1986 to July 1996. These tests clearly show that all six stock markets lacked at least one of the two required fair game attributes, and, accordingly, Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis must be rejected for these Asian markets. However, Singapore emerged from these tests as the most efficient regional Asian stock market. A tentative ranking in order of stock market efficiency is: Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Singapore's stock market pricing is closest to the speculative market behavior which can support stock options. Our tests show both Hong Kong and Taiwan to be inefficient markets. Both exhibit non-stationary (likely because of continuing institutional changes) and dependent price innovations, making them particularly unsuitable for stock option pricing. In Taiwan the weekly price innovations show even higher order (Markov) dependencies. Although the price innovations in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia are at least stationary at the weekly level, they exhibit regular higher-order transitions and the large sustained movements in both bull and bear markets, which are so characteristic for illiquid emerging markets. All six Asian stock markets exhibit strong price trend behavior, which, perhaps, can be profitably exploited by technical analysis with first- order Markov filters (e.g., Kalman filters) in windows of between a week and more than a month.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409033.

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Date of creation: 13 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409033

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Keywords: Nonparametrics; Efficiency; Stock Markets;

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  1. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May.
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  6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  7. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Optimal Multi-Currency Investment Strategies with Exact Attribution in Three Asian Countries," Finance 0409047, EconWPA.
  8. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  11. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Karuppiah, Jeyanthi & Los, Cornelis A., 2005. "Wavelet multiresolution analysis of high-frequency Asian FX rates, Summer 1997," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 211-246.
  2. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "The Changing Concept of Financial Risk," Finance 0409034, EconWPA.
  3. Jeyanthi Karuppiah & Cornelis A. Los, 2000. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency FX Rates, Summer 1997," School of Economics Working Papers 2000-06, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  4. Cornelis A. Los, 2005. "Measurement of Financial Risk Persistence," Finance 0502013, EconWPA.

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