Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates
AbstractThis paper examines the forecasting properties of a Markov regime-switching model applied to Swedish interest rate volatility. A Monte Carlo testing procedure is used to arrive at a three state specification that is able to capture the high degree of leptokurtosis in the data without additional modelling of conditional heteroskedasticity. The final specification is shown to possess good forecasting properties both in general and for specific samples and horizons, something that the benchmark processes are unable to achieve.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2002:5.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 26 Feb 2002
Date of revision: 26 Aug 2003
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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC
Regime switching; forecasting; volatility;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2002-03-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ETS-2002-03-14 (Econometric Time Series)
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