Unemployment and Inflation Regimes
AbstractIn this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. We find that MS-VAR models seem to provide a better description of the data than single regime VARs and need fewer lags to account for serial correlation. To interpret the regimes the empirical results are compared with the predictions from a version of Rogoff's (1985) model of monetary policy. We find that both the theoretical and empirical results suggest that an increase in central bank "conservativeness" can be associated with either a higher or a lower variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the low inflation regime.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 107.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Studies in Non-Linear Dynamics and Econometrics , 2006.
Cointegration; Monetary policy; Phillips curve; Regime switching; Unemployment volatility;
Other versions of this item:
- Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2000. "Unemployment and Inflation Regimes," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0984, Econometric Society.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2001-10-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-LAB-2001-10-09 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MON-2001-10-09 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2009. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 683-713, October.
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