IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2107.13926.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Collective correlations, dynamics, and behavioural inconsistencies of the cryptocurrency market over time

Author

Listed:
  • Nick James
  • Max Menzies

Abstract

This paper introduces new methods to study behaviours among the 52 largest cryptocurrencies between 01-01-2019 and 30-06-2021. First, we explore evolutionary correlation behaviours and apply a recently proposed turning point algorithm to identify regimes in market correlation. Next, we inspect the relationship between collective dynamics and the cryptocurrency market size - revealing an inverse relationship between the size of the market and the strength of collective dynamics. We then explore the time-varying consistency of the relationships between cryptocurrencies' size and their returns and volatility. There, we demonstrate that there is greater consistency between size and volatility than size and returns. Finally, we study the spread of volatility behaviours across the market changing with time by examining the structure of Wasserstein distances between probability density functions of rolling volatility. We demonstrate a new phenomenon of increased uniformity in volatility during market crashes, which we term \emph{volatility dispersion}.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "Collective correlations, dynamics, and behavioural inconsistencies of the cryptocurrency market over time," Papers 2107.13926, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.13926
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2003. "Common factors in international bond returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 629-656, October.
    2. Raj Kumar Pan & Sitabhra Sinha, 2007. "Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market," Papers 0704.0773, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2007.
    3. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2019. "Competition of noise and collectivity in global cryptocurrency trading: route to a self-contained market," Papers 1911.08944, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    4. Dong-Hee Kim & Hawoong Jeong, 2005. "Systematic analysis of group identification in stock markets," Papers physics/0503076, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2005.
    5. James, Nick, 2021. "Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    6. Anton J. Heckens & Sebastian M. Krause & Thomas Guhr, 2020. "Uncovering the Dynamics of Correlation Structures Relative to the Collective Market Motion," Papers 2004.12336, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    7. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2019. "Signatures of crypto-currency market decoupling from the Forex," Papers 1906.07834, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    8. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Financial contagion during COVID–19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    9. Jeffrey Chu & Saralees Nadarajah & Stephen Chan, 2015. "Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, July.
    10. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Basgall, María José & Hasperué, Waldo & Naiouf, Marcelo, 2017. "Some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 82-90.
    11. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from gold and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1577-1592, August.
    13. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Michael C. Munnix & Takashi Shimada & Rudi Schafer & Francois Leyvraz Thomas H. Seligman & Thomas Guhr & H. E. Stanley, 2012. "Identifying States of a Financial Market," Papers 1202.1623, arXiv.org.
    15. Kirchler, Michael & Huber, Jurgen, 2007. "Fat tails and volatility clustering in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1844-1874, June.
    16. Yang, Qing-Qing & Ching, Wai-Ki & Gu, Jia-Wen & Siu, Tak-Kuen, 2018. "Market-making strategy with asymmetric information and regime-switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 408-433.
    17. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    18. Vicente, Renato & de Toledo, Charles M. & Leite, Vitor B.P. & Caticha, Nestor, 2006. "Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 272-288.
    19. Telli, Şahin & Chen, Hongzhuan, 2020. "Structural breaks and trend awareness-based interaction in crypto markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    20. Driessen, J.J.A.G. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T.E., 2003. "Common factors in international bond returns," Other publications TiSEM 06a83942-b625-4d3c-808c-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Arjun Prakash & Nick James & Max Menzies & Gilad Francis, 2020. "Structural clustering of volatility regimes for dynamic trading strategies," Papers 2004.09963, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    22. Romeo Rizzi & Pritha Mahata & Luke Mathieson & Pablo Moscato, 2010. "Hierarchical Clustering Using the Arithmetic-Harmonic Cut: Complexity and Experiments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(12), pages 1-8, December.
    23. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic upon stability and sequential irregularity of equity and cryptocurrency markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    24. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Multifractal behavior of price and volume changes in the cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 54-61.
    25. Kumar, Anoop S. & Anandarao, S., 2019. "Volatility spillover in crypto-currency markets: Some evidences from GARCH and wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 448-458.
    26. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Rodriguez, E. & Ibarra-Valdez, C., 2018. "Long-range correlations and asymmetry in the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 948-955.
    27. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "A new measure between sets of probability distributions with applications to erratic financial behavior," Papers 2106.07377, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    28. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    29. Wilcox, Diane & Gebbie, Tim, 2007. "An analysis of cross-correlations in an emerging market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(2), pages 584-598.
    30. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Exploring disorder and complexity in the cryptocurrency space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 548-556.
    31. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Robert Gk{e}barowski & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2018. "Bitcoin market route to maturity? Evidence from return fluctuations, temporal correlations and multiscaling effects," Papers 1804.05916, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    32. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chan, Jennifer, 2021. "Changes to the extreme and erratic behaviour of cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    33. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard, 2020. "Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    34. de Zeeuw, Aart & Zemel, Amos, 2012. "Regime shifts and uncertainty in pollution control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 939-950.
    35. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    36. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Bouri, Elie & Peng, Zhe & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Asymmetric efficiency of cryptocurrencies during COVID19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    37. Arjun Prakash & Nick James & Max Menzies & Gilad Francis, 2021. "Structural Clustering of Volatility Regimes for Dynamic Trading Strategies," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 236-274, May.
    38. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    39. Qing He & Junyi Liu & Sizhu Wang & Jishuang Yu, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on stock markets," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-288, July.
    40. Sandoval, Leonidas & Franca, Italo De Paula, 2012. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 187-208.
    41. Mendes, Carlos F.O. & Beims, Marcus W., 2018. "Distance correlation detecting Lyapunov instabilities, noise-induced escape times and mixing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 721-730.
    42. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Stock markets and the COVID-19 fractal contagion effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    43. Nick James, 2021. "Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19," Papers 2101.00576, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    44. D'aniel Kondor & M'arton P'osfai & Istv'an Csabai & G'abor Vattay, 2013. "Do the rich get richer? An empirical analysis of the BitCoin transaction network," Papers 1308.3892, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
    45. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    46. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    47. Dániel Kondor & Márton Pósfai & István Csabai & Gábor Vattay, 2014. "Do the Rich Get Richer? An Empirical Analysis of the Bitcoin Transaction Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-10, February.
    48. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    49. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Chaos, randomness and multi-fractality in Bitcoin market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 28-34.
    50. Daniel J. Fenn & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Neil F. Johnson & Nick S. Jones, 2010. "Temporal Evolution of Financial Market Correlations," Papers 1011.3225, arXiv.org, revised May 2011.
    51. Dev Shah & Haruna Isah & Farhana Zulkernine, 2019. "Stock Market Analysis: A Review and Taxonomy of Prediction Techniques," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, May.
    52. Marc Lavielle & Gilles Teyssière, 2007. "Adaptive Detection of Multiple Change-Points in Asset Price Volatility," Springer Books, in: Gilles Teyssière & Alan P. Kirman (ed.), Long Memory in Economics, pages 129-156, Springer.
    53. Manavi, Seyed Alireza & Jafari, Gholamreza & Rouhani, Shahin & Ausloos, Marcel, 2020. "Demythifying the belief in cryptocurrencies decentralized aspects. A study of cryptocurrencies time cross-correlations with common currencies, commodities and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 556(C).
    54. Ausloos, M., 2000. "Statistical physics in foreign exchange currency and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 48-65.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nick James, 2021. "Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19," Papers 2101.00576, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    2. James, Nick, 2021. "Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    3. James, Nick & Chin, Kevin, 2022. "On the systemic nature of global inflation, its association with equity markets and financial portfolio implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    4. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chin, Kevin, 2022. "Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Nick James & Max Menzies & Kevin Chin, 2022. "Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments," Papers 2203.15911, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    6. Nick James & Kevin Chin, 2021. "On the systemic nature of global inflation, its association with equity markets and financial portfolio implications," Papers 2111.11022, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    7. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chan, Jennifer, 2021. "Changes to the extreme and erratic behaviour of cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    8. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic," Papers 2104.02318, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2023. "An exploration of the mathematical structure and behavioural biases of 21st century financial crises," Papers 2307.15402, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    10. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Gottwald, Georg A., 2022. "On financial market correlation structures and diversification benefits across and within equity sectors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    11. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "An exploration of the mathematical structure and behavioural biases of 21st century financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    12. Nick James, 2021. "Evolutionary correlation, regime switching, spectral dynamics and optimal trading strategies for cryptocurrencies and equities," Papers 2112.15321, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    13. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2023. "Collective dynamics, diversification and optimal portfolio construction for cryptocurrencies," Papers 2304.08902, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    14. Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020--2021," Papers 2112.06552, arXiv.org.
    15. Serdar Neslihanoglu, 2021. "Linearity extensions of the market model: a case of the top 10 cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    16. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    18. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming Part of the World Global Financial Market," Papers 2303.00495, arXiv.org.
    19. Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled & Yousaf, Imran & Bhandari, Avishek, 2023. "Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Nick James & Max Menzies & Georg A. Gottwald, 2022. "On financial market correlation structures and diversification benefits across and within equity sectors," Papers 2202.10623, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.