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Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments

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  • Nick James
  • Max Menzies
  • Kevin Chin

Abstract

Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI), economic growth (GDP) and equity index behaviours. We begin by assessing the temporal evolution among various economic phenomena, and complement this analysis with `economic driver analysis,' where we decouple country economic trajectories and determine what is most important in their association. Next, we study the temporal self-similarity of global inflation, growth and equity index returns to identify the most anomalous historic periods, and windows in the past that are most similar to current market dynamics. We then introduce a new algorithm to construct economic state classifications and compute an economic state integral, where countries are determined to belong in one of four candidate states based on their inflation and growth behaviours. Finally, we implement a decade-by-decade portfolio optimisation to determine which equity indices and portfolio assets have been most beneficial in maximising portfolio risk-adjusted returns in various market conditions. This could be of great interest to those looking for asset allocation guidance in the current period of high economic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick James & Max Menzies & Kevin Chin, 2022. "Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments," Papers 2203.15911, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2203.15911
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2023. "An exploration of the mathematical structure and behavioural biases of 21st century financial crises," Papers 2307.15402, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    2. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2023. "What is mature and what is still emerging in the cryptocurrency market?," Papers 2305.05751, arXiv.org.
    4. M. Mija'il Mart'inez-Ramos & Parisa Majari & Andres R. Cruz-Hern'andez & Hirdesh K. Pharasi & Manan Vyas, 2024. "Coarse graining correlation matrices according to macrostructures: Financial markets as a paradigm," Papers 2402.05364, arXiv.org.
    5. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2022. "Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    6. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2023. "Collective dynamics, diversification and optimal portfolio construction for cryptocurrencies," Papers 2304.08902, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    7. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "An exploration of the mathematical structure and behavioural biases of 21st century financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    8. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming Part of the World Global Financial Market," Papers 2303.00495, arXiv.org.
    9. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chok, James & Milner, Aaron & Milner, Cas, 2023. "Geometric persistence and distributional trends in worldwide terrorism," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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