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Brent crude oil prices volatility during major crises

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  • Zavadska, Miroslava
  • Morales, Lucía
  • Coughlan, Joseph

Abstract

Volatility patterns in Brent crude oil spot and futures prices are examined during four major crises that significantly affected the oil markets: the First Gulf war 1990/91; the Asian Financial crisis 1997/98; the US terrorist attack 2001; and the Global Financial crisis 2008/9. The selected crises arose due to different triggers having diverse implications for oil market participants. The outcomes reveal higher levels of volatility during crises that was directly associated with oil supply/demand disruptions and higher volatility persistence during financial/economic crises, indicating that volatility persistence is a key issue when uncertainty is derived from global economic and financial instability.

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  • Zavadska, Miroslava & Morales, Lucía & Coughlan, Joseph, 2020. "Brent crude oil prices volatility during major crises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:32:y:2020:i:c:s1544612318304380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.12.026
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    5. Tarek Bouazizi & Mongi Lassoued & Zouhaier Hadhek, 2021. "Oil Price Volatility Models during Coronavirus Crisis: Testing with Appropriate Models Using Further Univariate GARCH and Monte Carlo Simulation Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 281-292.
    6. Sánchez Arévalo, Jorge Luis & Ferreira de Andrade, Alisson Maxwell & de Oliveira Vendramin, Elisabeth, 2023. "Ibovespa’s response to the behavior of oil and ore prices during the international crisis caused by COVID-19," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 15(1), pages 21-43, January.
    7. Qianjie Geng & Xianfeng Hao & Yudong Wang, 2024. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: A time‐dependent weighted least squares with regularization constraint," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 309-325, March.
    8. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Alaba, Oluwayemisi O. & Ojo, Oluwadare O. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Abu, Nurudeen & Ajobo, Saheed A., 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Market Efficiency and Volatility of Energy Prices Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic Periods," MPRA Paper 109825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Qian, Yu & Xu, Zeshui & Qin, Yong & Gou, Xunjie & Skare, Marinko, 2023. "Measuring the varying relationships between sustainable development and oil booms in different contexts: An empirical study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Ahmad, Shakil, 2021. "Does COVID-19 effects the United States crude oil imports price?," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 33(1), pages 57-67.
    12. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Zhao, Jing, 2022. "Exploring the influence of the main factors on the crude oil price volatility: An analysis based on GARCH-MIDAS model with Lasso approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; Volatility; Energy; Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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