Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study
AbstractWe calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002–2003, 2004–2005, 2008–2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil & gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.
Volume (Year): 390 (2011)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/
US economic sectors; Macroeconomic cycle; Financial crisis; Economic recovery; Financial time series; Segmentation; Clustering; Cross correlations; Minimal spanning tree; Planar maximally filtered graph;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Sandoval, Leonidas, 2012. "Pruning a minimum spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2678-2711.
- Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2011. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2012. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(5), pages 1-81.
- Sandoval, Leonidas & Franca, Italo De Paula, 2012. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 187-208.
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "Stock market networks: The dynamic conditional correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(16), pages 4147-4158.
- Tu, Chengyi, 2014. "Cointegration-based financial networks study in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 245-254.
- Sandoval, Leonidas, 2014. "To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate on different times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 227-243.
- Chunxia, Yang & Bingying, Xia & Sen, Hu & Rui, Wang, 2012. "A study of the interplay between the structure variation and fluctuations of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3198-3205.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.