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Global capital market interdependence and spillover effect of credit risk: evidence from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis

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  • William Cheung
  • Scott Fung
  • Shih-Chuan Tsai
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    Abstract

    This article examines the impact of the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis on the interrelationships among global stock markets and the informational role of the TED spread as perceived credit risk. The current crisis originated from the dominant US market has a prompt and pervasive spillover effect into other global markets. Using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality test, cointegrating Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we document enhanced leadership of the US market with respect to UK, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Russia and China markets during the crisis. Consistent with the contagion theory, the interdependence among international stock markets becomes stronger in the crisis. The TED spread serves as a leading 'fear' indicator and adjusts to new information rapidly during the crisis. While the impact of orthogonalized shocks from the US market on other global markets increases by at least two times during the crisis, the impact of orthogonalized shocks from the TED spread on global market indices increase by at least five times. Overall, these findings shed light on the dynamics of international stock market linkage and the spillover effect of credit risk.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
    Pages: 85-103

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:1-2:p:85-103

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20

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    Cited by:
    1. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Chen, Hsin-Fu & Lin, Chi-Tai, 2013. "The spillover effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and optimum asset allocation in the BRICV stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 30-43.
    2. Demian, Calin-Vlad, 2011. "Cointegration in Central and East European markets in light of EU accession," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 144-155, February.
    3. Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2011. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Hwang, Eugene & Min, Hong-Ghi & Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2013. "Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 338-348.
    5. Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2012. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(5), pages 1-81.
    6. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
    7. Paraschiv, Florentina & Qin, Minzi, 2013. "Extreme Spillover Between Shadow Banking and Regular Banking," Working Papers on Finance 1312, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Fernández-Avilés, Gema & Montero, Jose-María & Orlov, Alexei G., 2012. "Spatial modeling of stock market comovements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 202-212.
    9. Wang, Lihong, 2014. "Who moves East Asian stock markets? The role of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 182-203.
    10. Lim, Kyuseong & Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Sehyun & Kim, Soo Yong, 2014. "Statistical properties of the stock and credit market: RMT and network topology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 66-75.

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