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Understanding the Roots of the US Subprime Crisis and its Subsequent Effects

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  • Cristiana Tudor

    (Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

In this paper we provide an overview of the roots, first manifestations and further developments of the US subprime crisis and explain the securitization process by emphasizing especially the mortgage securitization process. Some explanations for the ongoing financial crisis are also offered. We continue with a presentation of the US real estate sector and its main indicators. Finnally, we investigate the relationship between home mortgages growth and gross domestic product in the United States using quarterly observations for the two variables, covering the 2002-2008 time period. We find that curret GDP is explained both by its own lagged value and by previous quarter change in home mortgages. A unidirectional Granger causality from home mortgages to the gross domestic product is also attested. We can therefore report that a significant decrease in borrowing leads to an equally significant decrease in house prices and causes a future economic slowdown, reflected by a decrease in the gross domestic product.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiana Tudor, 2009. "Understanding the Roots of the US Subprime Crisis and its Subsequent Effects," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(31), pages 115-143, (1).
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:12:y:2009:i:31:p:115-143
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
    2. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Płuciennik Piotr, 2012. "Influence of the American Financial Market on Other Markets During the Subprime Crisis," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 19-30, December.
    3. Radhakrishnan, Srinivasan & Duvvuru, Arjun & Sultornsanee, Sivarit & Kamarthi, Sagar, 2016. "Phase synchronization based minimum spanning trees for analysis of financial time series with nonlinear correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 259-270.
    4. Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2012. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-81.
    5. Anton A. Setyawan & Basu Swastha Dharmmesta & BΜ Purwanto & Sahid Susilo Nugroho, 2015. "Model of Relationship Marketing and Power Asymmetry in Indonesia Retail Industry," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 108-127.
    6. Zhang, Yiting & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Wong, Jian Cheng & Kok, Jun Liang & Prusty, Manamohan & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2011. "Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2020-2050.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    subprime crisis; securitization; GDP – borrowing relationship; OLS; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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