Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?
AbstractIn an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of the LEI using growth rate forecast specifications. We contrast real-time out-of-sample tests of LEI forecasts using „composition-changing” or „as-published” versions of the LEI with those based on „composition-constant” indexes. The goal is ...
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.
Volume (Year): 2004 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Business cycle; Indicators; Leading index; Times series; Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2003. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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