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Choosing information variables for transition probabilities in a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model

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Author Info
Andrew J. Filardo
Abstract

This paper discusses a practical estimation issue for time-varying transition probability (TVTP) Markov switching models. Time-varying transition probabilities allow researchers to capture important economic behavior that may be missed using constant (or fixed) transition probabilities. Despite its use, Hamilton’s (1989) filtering method for estimating fixed transition probability Markov switching models may not apply to TVTP models. This paper provides a set of sufficient conditions to justify the use of Hamilton’s method for TVTP models. In general, the information variables that govern time-variation in the transition probabilities must be conditionally uncorrelated with the state of the Markov process.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 98-09.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98-09

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Keywords: Time-series analysis Estimation theory

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994. "The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS," Research Working Paper 94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Cosslett, Stephen R. & Lee, Lung-Fei, 1985. "Serial correlation in latent discrete variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 79-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schaller, Huntley & van Norden, Simon, 1997. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-91, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1978. "Discrete Parameter Variation: Efficient Estimation of a Switching Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 427-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates," Working Paper CRENoS 200802, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2005. "Transition Variables in the Markov-switching Model: Some Small Sample Properties," Working Papers 2005:25, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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