Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada
AbstractThis paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We use data from the Canadian financial system to show that these publicly available risk measures, while indicative of initial problems of the financial system as a whole, do not seem to correspond to risks implied by the cross-sectional heterogeneity in bank behavior in short-term lending markets. Strategies in, and reliance on the payments system as well as special liquidity-supplying tools provided by the central bank seem to be more important additional indicators of distress of individual banks, or lack thereof than the CDSs. It therefore seems that central banks should utilize high-frequency data on liquidity demand to obtain a better picture of financial health of individual participants of the financial system.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 11-17.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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Financial Institutions; Financial markets; Payment; clearing; and settlement systems;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-10-15 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-10-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2011-10-15 (Risk Management)
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