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Delincuencia, Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en México, ¿existe una relación asimétrica?
[Delinquency, Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico, is there an asymmetric relationship?]

Author

Listed:
  • Cortez, Willy W.
  • Islas-Camargo, Alejandro

Abstract

This essay evaluates the relationship between crime and GDP growth rates controlling by the proportion of people that cannot purchase the basic food basket with their labor income. Following recent studies we demonstrate that the relationship between crime and economic performance is not time invariant. We estimate the response coefficient using a Markov Switching model. Our results indicate that when GDP is in the expansion's regime, crime growth rates become positive; while when GDP is in the stagnation's regime, crime growth rates turn negative. Another of the findings is that an increase in the proportion of people that earn less than the cost of the basic food basket, growth rate of robberies increase. The latter effect is stronger when the economy shows a relative economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortez, Willy W. & Islas-Camargo, Alejandro, 2017. "Delincuencia, Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en México, ¿existe una relación asimétrica? [Delinquency, Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico, is there an asymmetric relationship?]," MPRA Paper 80258, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80258
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    2. Ms. Concha Verdugo Yepes & Mr. Peter L. Pedroni & Xingwei Hu, 2015. "Crime and the Economy in Mexican States: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)," IMF Working Papers 2015/121, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Di Tella, Rafael & Edwards, Sebastian & Schargrodsky, Ernesto (ed.), 2010. "The Economics of Crime," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226153742, December.
    4. H. Naci Mocan & Turan G. Bali, 2010. "Asymmetric Crime Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 899-911, November.
    5. Jose Navarro Martinez & Willy Walter Cortez-Yactayo, 2015. "Who are the victims of property crime in Mexico?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 179-198, February.
    6. Cinthya Caamal & Lourdes Trevino & Jorge Valero, 2012. "¿Son los pobres las victimas de la inseguridad en las metropolis de Mexico?," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(1), pages 159-169, Enero-Jun.
    7. Rodrigo R. Soares & Joana Naritomi, 2010. "Understanding High Crime Rates in Latin America: The Role of Social and Policy Factors," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 19-55, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Brown, Ryan & Velásquez, Andrea, 2017. "The effect of violent crime on the human capital accumulation of young adults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Crime; Asymmetric Effects; Poverty; Markov Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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